January 2, 2023 – The Swamp Runs Deep

Up on the Hill
A bold new agenda.
Maybe, if we can elect a Speaker of the House. Choosing a new speaker is the first matter of business that lawmakers must take up even before newly elected representatives are sworn in. The vote will be an alphabetical roll-call vote by the House Clerk. This year the stage has been set for what could be the most dramatic election for a speaker in a century.  For the first time in exactly 100 years, the U.S. House of Representatives may need more than one round of voting to elect a speaker. In 1923, it took nine ballots to select the speaker. There have only been 14 instances in which the process required multiple ballots. Lets see if Tuesday will be #15.

To be nominated, you do not have to be a member of the House of Representatives. In 2019, Sen. Tammy Duckworth (D-IL), Joseph Biden, and Stacey Abrams received votes. Who knows who might receive votes this year!

Back at the White House
A bold new agenda — enacted. Joe Biden and the congressional Democrats imposed a long list of tax increases as part of their “Inflation Reduction Act” passed in 2022. Yesterday (January 1, 2023), the following Democrat tax hikes took effect:

  • $6.5 Billion Natural Gas Tax Hike.  You can estimate this will amount to a 17% increase on your natural gas bill.
  • $12 Billion Crude Oil Tax Hike. This is a 16.4 cents-per-barrel tax on crude oil and imported petroleum products that will be passed on to you.
  • $1.2 Billion Coal Tax Hike. You will see this one in your electricity bill.
  • $74 Billion Stock Tax Hike. There goes your nest egg. This one will harm the 58 percent of Americans who own stock and the 60 million workers invested in a 401(k) as well as the 14.83 million Americans invested in 529 education savings accounts. Union retirement plans will be hit too. A little something for everyone–who works and saves!
  • $225 Billion Corporate Income Tax Hike.  You will see this in higher prices, fewer jobs, and lower wages; 49.7 percent of this tax will be borne by the manufacturing industry at a time when they are already struggling.

May not seem like a very good way to start the new year, but remember that elections have consequences and these are just five of them. Keep in mind, the Republicans will have the majority in the House, the Democrats in the Senate, and a Democrat in the White House. Time to follow the money.

Speaking of Money
In the November 21 E-Tracks, I mentioned the Iranian drones that have targeted Kiev and the 2,400 SHAHED-136 suicide drones that Moscow ordered. I mentioned the conscription of 82,000 soldiers, the 218,000 that are already in training in Russia. And here in America, 70% of people between 17-24 are unqualified for military service. Seventeen percent (17%) of our Active Component Soldiers are obese, and the Army missed its recruiting goals by 15,000 soldiers. It costs a lot of money to recruit, assess, select, and train our military, and our talent pool is limited.

In the 2022 Market Gains reports out this week, we see Northrop Grumman is up 41%, Lockheed Martin is up 37% and Raytheon is up 16%. Big money in war. The big winner in the last minute omnibus budget was Defense and it looks like they are passing the bucks around the beltway.

And, Back Here in our Arizona Schools
Speaking of following the money, now is a good time to take a look at the school funding in Arizona. The Arizona Auditor General has published “Arizona schools districts’ and charter schools’, and ADE’s discretionary, COVID-19 federal relief spending — in fiscal year 2022 and in total through June 30, 2022” here. There are several dashboards that allow you to see the spending in your Legislative Districts and by category. Be sure and read the Findings and Recommendations; lots of money to spend in a short period of time. Keep your eyes on the money.

It will be an interesting week, and I am sure that Tuesday will be a must-see TV event.

Happy New Year!